In my earlier post on The Obama Game Plan, I gave the following “Warning!  The following may seem cynical and overdrawn.  IMO it is a very realistic view…..”

I still feel my theory is both rational and plausible.  I still feel that my assumptions are reasonable.  So what do I think has changed in the past two weeks and what does it mean?

I think that Mr. Obama has made a conscious effort to be more positive.  I think he is fully aware of the fact that his mood regarding the economy has a significant effect on the stock market.

I am concerned that this is a head fake.  If you at least subscribe to the possibility that my theory could be right, then you must believe that Mr. Obama’s constant badmouthing of the economy was calculated.  If it was, then by helping the fear factor, it was partially responsible for driving the DOW to its lowest level in years.  All the concern and fear regarding the economy provided the perfect cover to rush through, “emergency” legislation to stem the tide of a sinking economy. Having accomplished his early goals, Mr. Obama can now turn to his next big goal, Universal Healthcare.  

While the stock market is falling, people are worried about their livelihood, their ability to afford to retire, putting food on the table.  In Mazlow’s hierarchy, you first exhibit the drive to survive before you have a need for comforts like health insurance.  By being upbeat and positive about the economy, Mr. Obama can effect a change in people’s needs.  Now it is no longer just the need to put food on the table.  It can be a focus on, for example, having health care in the future.  

If I am right and the upbeat comments on the economy will allow people to concentrate on other things, we will likely see a new fear campaign.  This will be to point out the dangers of the loss or lack of healthcare.  A new flu virus is coming.  AIDS/HIV is resurfacing as a major problem.  Polio really isn’t behind us.  Immigrants are bringing in new diseases.  Prescription drugs are increasing in price by 50% a year.  Etc.

Once again, I hope I am wrong, but the pattern has me thinking.  Seeing a video of Mr. Obama today talking to Small Business People (watch when his teleprompter goes out for ten seconds!) made me think again that his upbeat mood about the economy (now that his huge spending bills are passed and signed) is not a coincidence.

Predictions?  

1.  We will see major news stories about new health risks and costs. Spring floods bring water contamination, etc. Global Warming will have major health effects. Etc.   2.  There will be a new drumbeat of negative press about the American healthcare System. Insurance companies make all the money.  Lawyers are driving up costs.  Only Government provided care is immune to these problems.  Etc.   3. You will see puff-pieces and soft interviews with glowing reports of our wonderful Medicare programs.   4.  When the timing is ripe to pass universal healthcare, the economy will again be seen as gloomy and again we will be told that one of the major problems is the high cost of healthcare.

If this is not a head fake and Mr. Obama now realizes how important it is for him to be positive and encouraging about the economy, and he is honestly acting on that realization, then I am at least partially wrong and I apologize.  

If this new mood is a head fake then Mr. Obama is a wily politician and the “Change” we were promised is just a change from a somewhat bungling politican in George Bush to a very polished one in Barrack Obama.

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